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Survival analysis is a better estimate of recurrent disc herniation

Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Royal Berkshire Hospital, London Road, Reading RG1 5AN, UK.

Correspondence should be sent to Mr R. W. Marshall.

Studies on recurrent disc herniation quote rates of recurrence without regard to the times of recurrence and the influence of longer follow-up. Our objective was to assess the use of survival analysis to measure the rate of revision after lumbar microdiscectomy. We undertook a retrospective analysis of the hospital records of 993 patients who underwent lumbar microdiscectomy over a period of ten years. After calculating the overall rate of revision for the mean length of follow-up, we carried out a survival analysis using the life-table method. During the study period 49 patients had a revision microdiscectomy. This gave an overall rate of revision of 4.9% at a mean follow-up of 5.25 years. Using survival analysis, the rate of revision was 7.9% at a follow-up of ten years when the number at risk was 84. Survival analysis gives a more accurate estimation of the true rate of recurrence for patients undergoing lumbar microdiscectomy. The method allows better comparison between different interventions for disc herniation.